分類彙整:Learning

蒙格之道閱讀心得

最近才拜讀 巴菲特 搭檔 查理蒙格的繁體版新書 蒙格之道,想不到前幾天傳出作者過世消息,

這本書收錄了近12年間蒙格在股東會上與股東的問答,整體來說雖然討論話題比較零散一點,但依然可從此書中看見蒙格的犀利觀點,以及他追求人生的基本原則,我覺得很管用,如果想看更多作者的人生觀、投資、學習方法,建議可以先閱讀 窮查理的普通常識

以下是我覺得蒙格之道一書裡面對我而言可以幫助我的,部分摘要:

  • 如果你的劣勢無法消除,就學會帶著這項劣勢存在
  • 學習商業要從資本主義的歷史學起,研究資本主義的原理與運作方式
  • 能認識自己錯誤是非常寶貴的能力
  • 把自己的預期降低,為自己小小願望努力,你會過得更幸福
  • 對多數人來說,投資指數是更好的選擇,自己投資股票,賭性容易發作
  • 人生中懂得延遲滿足,死的時候會很風光

以神之名,如何判斷宗教團體是不是邪教?

看完Netflix以神之名攝理教篇,想起多年前媒體工作者李怡志整理的德國邪教檢查表17條,如果身旁的親朋好友參加的組織有越多項目符合該17條時,該組織越有可能是邪教,看完之後你會發現不僅是宗教,這些招數技巧很多也可以在直銷、政治、甚至是某些意識形態的組織都看得到

分別是:

1、在這個團體中,你彷彿能找到過去一直在尋找的東西,他們非常清楚,什麼是你在找尋的。

2. 當你一接觸這個組織,你對世界萬物就有了全新的看法。

3. 這個組織的世界觀非常簡單易懂,一目了然,並且可以解釋所有的問題。

4. 你很難對掌握組織的全貌,事實上,他們也不允許你仔細思考或是檢驗。你在組織中新認識的朋友會告訴你:「這很難用言語解釋,需要親身體會,要不要現在就過去看看?」

5. 這個組織有一個「大師」、「師傅」、「導師」、「老師」「上師」、「╳師」,只有他能知道宇宙或生命的真相。

6. 這個組織的教義才是唯一真實的、永遠的智慧。社會上的科學、理性思考等,都會被當作負面的、惡魔的或是不夠啟發。

7. 外界對於組織的質疑,反而被當作是組織正面的證明。

8. 這個世界即將遭遇大災害,只有這個組織才知道,要如何拯救地球。

9. 參加組織的人才是菁英,其他人都是病態與敗類,除非他們願意參加我們,讓自己獲得救贖。

10. 組織會要求你立刻參加。

11. 組織會要求成員透過服裝、飲食方法、自有的語言、嚴格的人際互動關係,將成員隔絕在社會之外。

12. 組織會要求你與過去的生活斷絕關係,因為這會阻礙你的成長。

13. 對你的性生活有嚴格規範,例如由「上面」替你選擇配偶、集體性行為或是完全禁慾。

14. 組織不斷賦予你許多工作,並佔去你所有的時間。你必須賣書、賣刊物、招募新成員、參加課程、靜坐靈修。

15. 幾乎喪失了獨處的時間,組織中的某個人總會整天纏著你。

16. 當你開始懷疑,為什麼組織當初允諾的「成功」並未發生時,組織會告訴你,是你投入不夠,或是信念不足,是你自己的責任。

17. 組織要求你嚴格遵循教義與規定,這是唯一獲得拯救的機會。

Book review of The Essential Retirement Guide

This is a financial planning book focused on middle-income or upper-income workers. Low-income people, defined here as at the bottom of 30 percent or so of the workforce, definitely need retirement target income exceeding 70 percent of their final pay. They’ve already been well taken care of with pensions from government programs. 

The keynote of The Essential Retirement Guide:

  1. Financial plans must be taken before we are getting older.

When coming to the financial abilities, people in their 80s were generally more confident than those in their 60s, even though the older ones scored barely half compared to the highest. While older test subjects scored quite poorly by any absolute or relative measure, their confidence in their financial abilities was actually higher than that of their younger counterparts. Preemptive measures need to be taken. We should handle this while we are still young enough to use whatever insights we have at our disposal.

2. Your financial strategy should be simple. 

Keeping your financial strategy simple may not be an optimal choice, but it is better than varying the mix for the wrong reasons. There is no correlation between high fees and high returns.

3.Exposing yourself unduly to downside risks is irrational if the only upside is to produce a windfall gain that you do not really need.

4.Long-term care insurance is not an effective choice

Insurance is most effective when 

  • The potential losses from which you are seeking protection are easily understood and quantifiable. 
  • The cost of the insurance seems reasonable relative to the coverage.
  • Any losses over a given threshold would be fully reimbursed by the insurance

However, Long-term care insurance  doesn’t meet the criteria. 

5. Don’t overspend

In a consumerist society, our reach tends to beyond our grasp. If you make $80,000 a year, pretend as if it were just $70,000 and save the rest. 

In summary, the author, Frederick Vettese, specializes in actuary and has spent his whole career in retirement consulting and workplace pension plans. He provides a lot of insights about retirement planning using his actuarial expertise. In addition, he uses a lot of contextual scenarios in explaining concepts such as wealth target and workplace pension plans. It’s a highly recommended book.